1 Introduction

Countries face an increasingly complex risk landscape. The impact of a single shock—an earthquake, a food crisis, or a disease outbreak—can amplify existing stressors or potentially initiate a cascade of shocks, leading to larger and more sustained impacts on lives, livelihoods, and development outcomes. With the potential to cause significant economic impacts, complex crises can hinder progress in poverty reduction, especially in low-income and fragile countries.

The ongoing COVID pandemic is a prime example of a complex crisis with considerable adverse consequences on economies in both high- and low-income countries. Not only is the pandemic reducing the ability of countries to respond to wider threats, the occurrence of any additional shocks (whether natural, political or economic) during the COVID crisis is likely to hinder the recovery process, further entrench existing vulnerabilities, and significantly roll back development gains.